TY - JOUR AU - Huang, Rui AU - Liu, Miao AU - Ding, Yongmei PY - 2020/03/31 Y2 - 2024/03/28 TI - Spatial-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China and its prediction: A data-driven modeling analysis JF - The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries JA - J Infect Dev Ctries VL - 14 IS - 03 SE - Coronavirus Pandemic DO - 10.3855/jidc.12585 UR - https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/32235084 SP - 246-253 AB - <p>Currently, the outbreak of COVID-19 is rapidly spreading especially in Wuhan city, and threatens 14 million people in central China. In the present study we applied the Moran index, a strong statistical tool, to the spatial panel to show that COVID-19 infection is spatially dependent and mainly spread from Hubei Province in Central China to neighbouring areas. Logistic model was employed according to the trend of available data, which shows the difference between Hubei Province and outside of it. We also calculated the reproduction number R<sub>0 </sub>for the range of [2.23, 2.51] via SEIR model. The measures to reduce or prevent the virus spread should be implemented, and we expect our data-driven modeling analysis providing some insights to identify and prepare for the future virus control.</p> ER -