Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis

  • Tianchen Zhang Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Sheng Ding Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Zhili Zeng Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Huijian Cheng Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Chengfeng Zhang Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Xiangqun Mao Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Huanhong Pan Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Guanghui Xia Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
  • Daping Che Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, incubation period, serial interval, meta-analysis

Abstract

Introduction: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method.

Methodology: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by “fitdistrplus” package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by “meta” package of R software.

Results: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 – 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 – 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 – 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 – 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 – 5.57), respectively.

Conclusions: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Published
2021-03-31
How to Cite
1.
Zhang T, Ding S, Zeng Z, Cheng H, Zhang C, Mao X, Pan H, Xia G, Che D (2021) Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis. J Infect Dev Ctries 15:326-332. doi: 10.3855/jidc.14025
Section
Coronavirus Pandemic