Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis

Tianchen Zhang; Sheng  Ding; Zhili  Zeng; Huijian  Cheng; Chengfeng  Zhang; Xiangqun  Mao; Huanhong  Pan; Guanghui  Xia; Daping Che

doi:10.3855/jidc.14025

Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis

Authors

Tianchen Zhang Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Sheng Ding Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Zhili Zeng Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Huijian Cheng Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Chengfeng Zhang Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Xiangqun Mao Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Huanhong Pan Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Guanghui Xia Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
Daping Che Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.14025

Keywords:

COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, incubation period, serial interval, meta-analysis

Abstract

Introduction: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method.

Methodology: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by “fitdistrplus” package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by “meta” package of R software.

Results: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 – 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 – 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 – 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 – 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 – 5.57), respectively.

Conclusions: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

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Published

2021-03-31

How to Cite

Zhang T, Ding S, Zeng Z, Cheng H, Zhang C, Mao X, Pan H, Xia G, Che D (2021) Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis. J Infect Dev Ctries 15:326–332. doi: 10.3855/jidc.14025

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Issue

Vol. 15 No. 03: March 2021

Section

Coronavirus Pandemic

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