Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis
Introduction: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method.
Methodology: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by “fitdistrplus” package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by “meta” package of R software.
Results: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 – 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 – 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 – 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 – 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 – 5.57), respectively.
Conclusions: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Copyright (c) 2021 Tianchen Zhang, Sheng Ding, Zhili Zeng, Huijian Cheng, Chengfeng Zhang, Xiangqun Mao , Huanhong Pan , Guanghui Xia, Daping Che
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).