Trends of Epidemiological and Demographic Indicators of COVID-19 in India
Introduction: This study was planned to assess the trends of epidemiological indicators and demographic determinants related to the COVID-19 in India.
Methodology: This was a descriptive analysis of the COVID-19 cases and their outcomes between 1st March to 31st May 2020 in India. Unpaired t-test and ANOVA were used to determine the statistical differences. Linear regression models were prepared to estimate the effect of testing on the fatalities. The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)/Case Fatality Rate (CFR), doubling time, and Basic Reproduction Number (R0) per week were calculated.
Results: Two-thirds of the cases were between 21-50 years of age, while three-fourth of deaths were among people above 50-years of age. The mean age of people infected with COVID-19 was declining throughout the study period. The mean age of infected males and females was significantly different. The male-female ratio of both infection and deaths due to COVID-19 was near about 2:1. IFR/CFR was 3.31 (95% CI = 3.13-3.50) in April, which reduced to 2.84 (95% CI = 2.77-2.92) in May. An incremental trend was observed in the recovery rates (9.42% to 48.18%), tests conducted / million population (12 / million to 2708 / million) and doubling time (3.59 to 17.71 days). The number of tests was significantly influencing the fatalities (β = 0.016, 95% CI = 0.012-0.020). The overall R0 was found to be 1.72.
Conclusions: Public health interventions were likely effective in containing the spread of COVID-19. There is a need to further improve the testing capacity. The high-risk category of individuals being prioritized for hospital admission should be redefined to include individuals older than 50 years.
Copyright (c) 2021 Manoj Kumar Gupta, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Akhil Dhanesh Goel, Suman Saurabh, Sanjeev Misra
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