Complete blood count derived inflammation indexes predict outcome in COVID-19 patients: a study in Indonesia

Abstract

Introduction: Inflammation plays a vital role in the pathophysiology of COVID-19. Complete blood count (CBC) is a routine test performed on patients. It provides information regarding the inflammatory process and can be used as a predictor of outcome. This study aimed to explore the correlation between different complete blood count (CBC)-derived inflammation indexes at hospital admission, such as neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived NLR (dNLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), neutrophil to lymphocyte × platelet ratio (NLPR), aggregate index of systemic inflammation (AISI), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), to in-hospital mortality in confirmed COVID-19 patients.

Methodology: A retrospective observational study was performed at Ulin Referral Hospital of South Kalimantan with 445 COVID-19 patients from April to November 2020. The patients were divided into two groups, non-survivor and survivor. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cut-off values. Bivariate analysis was performed using the Chi Square test, the risk ratio was calculated, and logistics regression was determined.

Results: Increase of NLR, dNLR, PLR, MLR, NLPR, MLR, AISI, SIRI, and SII from cut-off values were significantly correlated with patient survival outcome. The cut off values were 6.90, 4.10, 295, 0.42, 0.037, 1,422, 1.80, and 2,504 respectively. NLPR was dominant in predicting in-hospital mortality (OR: 6.668, p = 0.000) with a 28.1% sensitivity and 95.9% specificity.

Conclusions: CBC-derived inflammation indexes were associated with the survival outcome of confirmed COVID-19 patients and NLPR was a dominant variable.