Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure

Mengxuan Lin; Pengyuan Nie; Qunjiao Yan; Xinying Du; Jinquan Chen; Yaqing Jin; Ligui Wang; Lei Wang

doi:10.3855/jidc.19058

Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure

Authors

Mengxuan Lin Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8947-5421
Pengyuan Nie Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2196-1033
Qunjiao Yan Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China
Xinying Du Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
Jinquan Chen Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
Yaqing Jin Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6599-9997
Ligui Wang Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
Lei Wang Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA, Beijing, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.19058

Keywords:

Antibody failure, China, COVID-19, fluctuating epidemic, SEIR model

Abstract

Introduction: China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022.

Methodology: In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies, we built and ran a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed-susceptible-quarantined model incorporating self-isolation to predict future cases of COVID-19.

Results: Four waves of outbreaks were predicted to occur in November 2023, and in April, July, and November 2024. The first two waves were predicted to be more severe, with the maximum number of infected cases reaching 18.97% (269 million) and 8.77% (124 million) of the country’s population, respectively, while the rest were predicted to affect a maximum of < 3%.

Conclusions: Future outbreaks are expected to occur at shorter intervals but last for longer durations. COVID-19 epidemics in China are expected to subside after November 2024.

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Published

2025-01-31

How to Cite

Lin M, Nie P, Yan Q, Du X, Chen J, Jin Y, Wang L, Wang L (2025) Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure. J Infect Dev Ctries 19:13–16. doi: 10.3855/jidc.19058

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Issue

Vol. 19 No. 01: January 2025

Section

Coronavirus Pandemic

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