Trends of the incidence rate of Hepatitis C in Changsha, China, 2005 to 2023 and Its Prediction to 2025

Shuilian Chen; Ping Zeng; Kewei Yang; Xixing Zhang; Xuewen Yang; Yinzhu Zhou

doi:10.3855/jidc.19790

Trends of the incidence rate of Hepatitis C in Changsha, China, 2005 to 2023 and Its Prediction to 2025

Authors

Shuilian Chen Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
Ping Zeng College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
Kewei Yang College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
Xixing Zhang Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
Xuewen Yang Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
Yinzhu Zhou Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan Province, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.19790

Keywords:

Hepatitis C, incidence rate, trend, model, prediction

Abstract

Introduction: Hepatitis C is a globally distributed hepatic disease with a high chronicity rate, posing significant global public health concerns. This research aimed to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C to guide disease prevention and control.

Method: The quarterly incidence rates of hepatitis C in Changsha from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2023 were collected. Curve-fitting method, grey model (GM (1,1)), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) model, were applied to simulate the incidence trend of hepatitis C.

Results: The annual average reported incidence rate in Changsha was 12.518 per 100,000. The incidence rate of hepatitis C showed an upward trend from 1.102 per 100,000 in 2005 to 17.172 per 100,000 in 2013 and remained at a high level from 2014 to 2019. It has been steadily declining since 2020. The BPNN model exhibited the best forecasting performance (MAE = 0.394, MRE = 0.203). The prediction results from the BPNN model estimated the incidence rate of hepatitis C to be 9.991 per 100,000 in 2024 and 11.920 per 100,000 in 2025.

Conclusions: The incidence of hepatitis C in the next two years is projected to be slightly higher than that during the COVID-19 epidemic. It is imperative to strengthen various measures to achieve the goal of hepatitis C elimination in China.

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Published

2025-01-31

How to Cite

Chen S, Zeng P, Yang K, Zhang X, Yang X, Zhou Y (2025) Trends of the incidence rate of Hepatitis C in Changsha, China, 2005 to 2023 and Its Prediction to 2025. J Infect Dev Ctries 19:140–145. doi: 10.3855/jidc.19790

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Issue

Vol. 19 No. 01: January 2025

Section

Original Articles

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