Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine

Authors

  • Serdar Gul Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Kirikkale University, Kirikkale, Turkey
  • Kagan Tuncay Faculty of Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
  • Baris Binici Faculty of Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
  • Beyazit Bestami Aydin Faculty of Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.12844

Keywords:

transmission, social distancing, COVID-19

Abstract

Introduction: There are significant differences in the active cases and fatality rates of Covid-19 for different European countries.

Methodology: The present study employs Monte Carlo based transmission growth simulations for Italy, Germany and Turkey. The probabilities of transmission at home, work and social networks and the number of initial cases have been calibrated to match the basic reproduction number and the reported fatality curves. Parametric studies were conducted to observe the effect of social distancing, work closure, testing and quarantine of the family and colleagues of positively tested individuals.

Results: It is observed that estimates of the number of initial cases in Italy compared to Turkey and Germany are higher. Turkey will probably experience about 30% less number of fatalities than Germany due its smaller elderly population. If social distancing and work contacts are limited to 25% of daily routines, Germany and Turkey may limit the number of fatalities to a few thousands as the reproduction number decreases to about 1.3 from 2.8. Random testing may reduce the number of fatalities by 10% upon testing least 5/1000 of the population. Quarantining of family and workmates of positively tested individuals may reduce the total number of fatalities by about 50%.

Conclusions: The fatality rate of Covid-19 is estimated to be about 1.5% based on the simulation results. This may further be reduced by limiting the number of non-family contacts to two, conducting tests more than 0.5% of the population and immediate quarantine of the contacts for positively tested individuals.

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Published

2020-07-31

How to Cite

1.
Gul S, Tuncay K, Binici B, Aydin BB (2020) Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy, Germany and Turkey considering social distancing, testing and quarantine. J Infect Dev Ctries 14:713–720. doi: 10.3855/jidc.12844

Issue

Section

Coronavirus Pandemic

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