Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19

  • Yanyan Jiang Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Biomedical Functional Materials, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
  • Xuefeng Jiang Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Biomedical Functional Materials, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China
  • Wenjun Tong Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Biomedical Functional Materials, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5065-6591
  • Jingming Zhou Jingling High School Hexi Campus, Nanjing, China
Keywords: COVID-19, epidemic, outbreak, progress percentage, projection

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest in the past 100 years, affected over 200 countries and killed over 300 thousand people. To better understand the epidemics in different areas, the progress percentage was generated in this study by dividing everyday total confirmed case number by the up-to-date total case number, so data obtained from different countries and territories can be put together and compared directly regardless of the large difference in the magnitude of numbers. The global outbreak data were analyzed and categorized into 4 groups based on different epidemic curve stages. The grouping pattern suggests that the geographical position may not play a critical role in the progress of COVID-19 epidemic. In this report, we also used a mathematic model to predict the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in UK, USA and Canada in Group 3, providing valuable information for assessing the risk in these countries and the timing of reopening business.

Author Biography

Wenjun Tong, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Biomedical Functional Materials, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, School of Chemistry and Materials Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China

Brown University, PhD

Nanjing Normal University, Professor

Published
2020-10-31
How to Cite
1.
Jiang Y, Jiang X, Tong W, Zhou J (2020) Quantitative analysis and mathematic modeling of the global outbreak of COVID-19. J Infect Dev Ctries 14:1106-1110. doi: 10.3855/jidc.13150
Section
Coronavirus Pandemic