A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan

  • Syed Rizwan-ul-Hasan Department of Computer Science, DHA Suffa University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Fatima Farrukh Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Shakil Ahmed Department of Computer Engineering, Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Syed Hani Abidi Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9497-0902
Keywords: HIV-1, Probabilistic modeling, high-risk groups, Pakistan

Abstract

Introduction: Since 2010, the number of new HIV-1 cases has declined by 30% globally, however, in few countries, such as Pakistan, the cases have continued to increase, where the country witnessed a 57% increase in the number of new infections between 2010 and 2020. The HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan is concentrated in certain high-risk groups, however, it is unknown which high-risk group has a higher likelihood of transmitting HIV-1 infections to vulnerable populations. This study aimed to apply mathematical probabilistic modeling to estimate the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan.

Methodology: MATLAB software was used to conduct probabilistic modeling (chance estimation) of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan, and also draw a comparison between Pakistan and different high- and low- HIV-1 prevalence countries.

Results: Our results revealed that Pakistan overall had the lowest probability of HIV-1 transmission as compared to other countries included in this study; however, within Pakistan, certain high-risk groups such as people who inject drugs (PWID) and the region of Larkana exhibited a high probability of HIV-1 transmissions.

Conclusions: Our study suggests that the concentrated HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan has a high likelihood of expansion from certain high-risk groups to other vulnerable populations. Further studies to understand the socio-epidemiological factors driving the expansion of the HIV-1 epidemic within the country will guide specific HIV-1 intervention strategies to control the spread of HIV-1 from high-risk to other vulnerable populations.

Author Biography

Syed Hani Abidi, Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan

Assistant Professor, Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences

Published
2021-08-31
How to Cite
1.
Rizwan-ul-Hasan S, Farrukh F, Ahmed S, Abidi SH (2021) A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan. J Infect Dev Ctries 15:1212-1215. doi: 10.3855/jidc.12664
Section
Brief Original Articles