On the early detecting of the COVID-19 outbreak

  • Mohammed Aba Oud Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
  • Muqrin Almuqrin Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science in Zulfi, Majmaah University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Keywords: Public health, COVID-19, monitoring, detection method, MEM, CUSUM


Introduction: This paper aims to measure the performance of early detection methods, which are usually used for infectious diseases.

Methodology: By using real data of confirmed Coronavirus cases from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Italy, the moving epidemic method (MEM) and the moving average cumulative sums (Mov. Avg Cusum) methods are used in our simulation study.

Results: Our results suggested that the CUSUM method outperforms the MEM in detecting the start of the Coronavirus outbreak.

How to Cite
Aba OudM, Almuqrin M (2021) On the early detecting of the COVID-19 outbreak. J Infect Dev Ctries 15:1625-1629. doi: 10.3855/jidc.13914
Coronavirus Pandemic