COVID-19 risk areas associated with social vulnerability in northeastern Brazil: an ecological study in 2020

  • Cícera Maria Alencar do Nascimento Programa de Pós-Graduação em Análise de Sistemas Ambientais, Cesmac, Maceió, Alagoas, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3046-7798
  • Carlos Dornels Freire De Souza Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde da Família, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, Brasil
  • Lucas Emanuel de Oliveira Silva Universidade Estadual de Ciências da Saúde de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brasil http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0837-8254
  • Wedja Oliveira Silva Campus de Engenharia e Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6048-9472
  • Nicolas Amaro Barbosa Universidade Estadual de Ciências da Saúde de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2353-5916
  • Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo Colegiado de Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade Federal do Vale do São Francisco, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Brasil http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9601-6995
  • Esdras de Lima Andrade Instituto de Geografia, Desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Alagoas, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6043-0112
  • Sérgio Henrique de Oliveira Teixeira Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Sul de Minas https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8044-7854
  • Thiago José Matos Rocha Universidade Estadual de Ciências da Saúde de Alagoas, Maceió, Alagoas, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5153-6583
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, vulnerability, epidemiology, COVID-19

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19 is a major public health concern in this century. The causative agent SARS-CoV-2, is highly contagious and spreads continuously across territories. Spatial analysis is of enormous importance in the process of understanding the disease and its transmission mechanisms. We aimed to identify the risk areas for COVID-19 and analyze their association with social vulnerability in Maceió, Alagoas. The study was conducted in 2020.

Methodology: This is an ecological study to evaluate the incidence, mortality and case fatality rate of COVID-19 and their relationship with 12 indicators of human development and social vulnerability. Multivariate and spatial statistics were applied. A 95% confidence interval and a 5% confidence level were considered.

Results: The spatial scan statistic revealed the existence of six high-risk clusters for the incidence of COVID-19. The regression model showed that social indicators, such as literacy of people, residents of private households, households with more than four residents, and resident brown population, were associated with COVID-19 transmission in Maceió-AL. The disease affected localities whose populations are exposed to a context of intense socioeconomic vulnerability.

Conclusions: Based on the results, it is necessary to adopt measures that take into account the social determinants of health in order to minimize the damage caused by the pandemic.

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Published
2022-08-30
How to Cite
1.
Alencar do NascimentoCM, Freire De SouzaCD, de Oliveira SilvaLE, Oliveira SilvaW, Amaro BarbosaN, Feliciano do CarmoR, de Lima AndradeE, Henrique de Oliveira TeixeiraS, José Matos RochaT (2022) COVID-19 risk areas associated with social vulnerability in northeastern Brazil: an ecological study in 2020. J Infect Dev Ctries 16:1285-1293. doi: 10.3855/jidc.15214
Section
Coronavirus Pandemic